The Daily Northwestern wrote a pretty absurd article giving the odds for NU going to the Capital One Bowl, Outback Bowl, and Gator Bowl. I thought both factually and mathematically their arguments were unsound, and thus left this comment. So I decided I would share my thoughts with our audience. Feel free to agree or disagree, but here’s my take:
“This is pretty crap. Do some research. There is a 0% chance that we go to the Gator Bowl.
If Neb wins, CapOne will take Michigan IF Georgia loses the SEC title game. If not, they will 90% take NU. Otherwise, Outback will 100% take NU if they have the chance. They love us. They are excited at the chance to take a 9 win team who came in good numbers 3 years ago.
The CapOne likes NU, and if faced with the option of NU or Neb (given a Neb loss) they will 100% take NU. Neb lost there last year (handily) and would be coming off a disappointing loss in a B1G title game that they didn’t even sell their allotment to…
So the key here is determining the probability that Georgia beats Alabama and the probability that Nebraska beats Wisconsin.
Given Alabama is the favorite by 7.5, lets assume, for the sake of assumption that Alabama has a 60% chance of winning, and Neb is 3 point favorite so well say 55% chance of them winning (this is fairly arbitrary, but seems like better estimators than 50/50).
Then by creating a probability tree we can look at each scenario and base the odds of each outcome based on the above.
My calculation has us at 64.8% Capital One, 35.2% Outback, 0% Gator. Grated this is based on very rough estimates for the two conference title games, but is still way better than your nonsense.
That’s my take! Go ‘Cats! See you in Orlando!