It’s game week. I honestly can’t believe it’s really here. Northwestern has a game on Saturday. Life is good.

This time of year is rampant for wild speculation about who will be in the playoff, who will win their division, which teams are dark horses, how long Lovie Smith will continue to cash checks at Illinois, etc. What’s fun is that no one really knows for sure, so you can really say whatever you want and bet that somewhere out there, there is someone that will agree with you (and an army of people who will disagree).

Much has been written about the B1G West race this year – not in the context of the CFP title race or even really in the context of competing for the B1G title, but because the division seems so up for grabs.

We’ve made the joke many times about the B1G “Wild Wild” West, and I can think of a few instances where our Thursday Pump Up Jam featured the sweet sweet tenor of Will Smith from the late 90’s. Rarely has the B1G West seemed as wild and open as it does this year.

There is a clear basement on our side of the conference, with Illinois having won a total of four B1G games in the last three years. But, aside from Lovie’s crew, you can make a case (and people have) for every other team in the division to take the West. Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue and the ‘Cats all have been talked about as a potential West champ.

A lot of the B1G West race will, as it does every year, come down to each team’s schedule and specifically who they face on the other side of the division. I’ve done a highly scientific analysis to look at how difficult each team’s schedule is based on two key factors: 1. who they play in the East, and 2. how many road games they have against their fellow B1G West competitors (I eliminated Illinois from this mix because, well it’s Illinois).

In the East, there is a pretty clear hierarchy of teams. You’ve got Ohio State and Michigan on the balcony popping some Veuve Cliquot, Penn State and Michigan a floor below sipping some Burgundy, Maryland and Indiana on the first floor drinking some Miller High Life and then Rutgers chilling in the basement with Natty Ice and a pack of Malboro Reds. For the purposes of our scientific schedule analysis, I’ve assigned games against Ohio State or Michigan a value of four, PSU or MSU three, Indiana or Maryland two and Rutgers one point.

Then, I’ve assigned one point to every road game the B1G West ‘contenders’ have against the other set of contenders in the division. The more points a team has, the more difficult their schedule – let’s see how it shakes out:

Iowa – 11 points

The ‘Cats have somehow clinched the West with two games left to play, and now will go to Indy on Dec 1^st for a chance to make the Rose Bowl. A pipe dream that led the West Lot Warriors to name our beloved van Rose is now very much a real possibility – if we can win one game, we’ll make the trip to Pasadena (and so will Rose the van…somehow, someway).

Clinching with two games to go gives us the chance to scout our Indy opponent and debate about who we want to face out of the other side of the Big Ten. The B1G East is down to two teams who will play each other in the last game of the year – Ohio State and Michigan. So, who would we rather face?

Michigan:

The ‘Cats played Michigan very tough earlier in the season, taking a 17-0 lead on the Wolverines in Evanston before slowly but surely relenting to a methodical Michigan attack. The Wolverines ran in a TD in the fourth quarter to take a 20-17 lead that would end up as the final margin. Michigan, as they always have under Harbaugh, runs a pro-style offense that the ‘Cats have fared well against this year. The ‘Cats have given up less than 16 points per game to Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan – the three teams we’ve faced that feature that grind it out pro-style offense.

After losing a tight game at Notre Dame to begin the year, the Wolverines have pretty much skated through the rest of their schedule. Other than the tight three point win in Evanston, the next closest Michigan win was by 14 points at Sparty. Does that mean the ‘Cats match up well against the Wolverines, or was our first matchup a fluke? I tend to think it’s the former, and you can certainly argue that Northwestern now is a better team than we were on 9/29 when we first matched up. At that point, we had just learned that our star RB Jeremy Larkin was retiring from football, and reeling after a loss at home to Akron. We rushed for 28 yards in that game, and with the way Isaiah Bowser’s playing right now, you’d have to imagine we’d do better on the ground.

Everyone counted the ‘Cats out, and we showed up in a big way for that next game. If we end up playing Michigan in Indy, we’ll still be widely counted out and large underdogs as Michigan would be playing for a spot in the Playoffs. Vegas would have Michigan as about a 17 point favorite over the ‘Cats in Indy.

Ohio State:

Now we come to Ohio State. You could say they’ve got a worse QB and a worse defense than Michigan. They also got blown out at Purdue, in a tough West Lafayette atmosphere where the ‘Cats prevailed earlier in the year. All in all, they seem like they’re trending downwards whereas Michigan is on the up and up. Should be a no-brainer we want to face OSU right?

Not so fast. I think OSU boasts more talent at the skill positions. They can chuck it deep to a slew of skilled receivers – they remind me of Notre Dame, at least on offense. They have the #3 passing offense in the nation, and would be going against a beat up Northwestern secondary.

Their defense is better than people think, coming in at #56 in total defense, just behind the ‘Cats at #50. I also think people are counting OSU out right now – if they were to get to Indy they’d be coming off a huge upset win over Michigan and have a lot of momentum going in their favor.

The Verdict:

I think we match up better with Michigan than Ohio State and have a better chance to slow down their offense than we would against the Buckeyes.

Even though this seems like it’s Harbaugh’s year, he’s never actually won a big time game at Michigan. The Wolverines have never been to the B1G Title game, just like the ‘Cats. You’d think there’d be no way that he could get all the way to Indy only to lose a play in game against Northwestern that would have placed his team in the College Football Playoff. But, the pressure would really all be on the Wolverines in that scenario. I’d rather face a team that is new to this situation and hasn’t overcome that type of pressure yet, than an OSU team that has been there many times and won the big games in convincing fashion. I have flashbacks to last year when Ohio State looked so much faster than Wisconsin in the B1G title game.

Feels like a game against Ohio State could turn into a track meet, whereas a game against Michigan would be a rock fight. The ‘Cats perform much better in rock fights than track meets.

For all of these reasons, I’d rather play Michigan. Either way it’s going to be an incredibly tough game, but either way we’re going to have a chance. This will be the biggest Northwestern football game in at least 18 years. Let’s hope it comes up roses.

Northwestern’s 27-0 beatdown of Minnesota on Saturday announced the ‘Cats as a legitimate contender in the Big Ten West. Heck, after the team vaulted to #13 in the AP poll this week, it’s hard to argue against them being a playoff contender.

The defense did its normal thing on Saturday, absolutely smothering a suspect Minnesota offense, and creating some timely turnovers. Even the offense started to pick up, with Clayton throwing for an efficient 14-19 and JJ picking up 100 yards in the game without Fitz running him 67 times. When it all came together against the Gophers, man did it come together. I don’t remember a statement win like that since I’ve been a Northwestern fan.

In the past ten years we’ve had success going to bowl games and being ranked on and off over that span. But, as Andy Day mentioned in a previous post, we tend to lose very soon after climbing into the top #25. It seems like the ‘Cats seem to thrive in the role of an underdog, but as soon as they’re thrust into the spotlight and the pressure ramps up…they wilt. In past years when we’ve crept into the top #25, I’ve never felt really solid about wherever we were ranked. I was always ecstatic waking up on Sunday to find our team listed on the bottom of the ESPN ticker as a top 25-er, but never fully believing that we deserved to be where we were placed.

This time, it’s different. This team not only has the resume of a deserving top-15 team, it has also passed the eye test. Our defense not only looks good – the stats also back it up. We have the top scoring defense in the country, giving up less than seven points per game. When you’re watching a game, you think that more often than not our defense is going to shut the opposing offense down. I’m surprised at this point when our opponents convert on third down.

Now we could easily lose to Michigan this week. We started out as a double-digit underdog (way too high of a line), and have our freshman QB going on the road into the Big House. Bigsby Thorson didn’t play well in his first road game at Duke, and it’s hard to really even consider that a road game since the stands were so empty. Playing at Michigan will be a whole different animal.

And yet, I’m not giving up hope for a win this week. Because I’ve seen this team play. And unlike past years, I’m not gripping the edge of my seat in fear every time they take the field. They look fast. They look hungry. They look confident. They look like they believe. It has been exactly 20 years since the 1995 Wildcat team turned around the program, expected victory and kept winning all the way to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. It’s pretty poetic that we again are a legit contender exactly 20 years later.

But, having come into the year with no expectations at all – you have to take a step back as a fan. No one thought we would be 5-0. At this point, it’s all gravy. I’m typically a very pessimistic sports fan (watch out Cubs), since if you always think your team is going to lose, then any win is just a bonus. But when it comes to the ‘Cats, I’m pretty positive and optimistic relative to other fans. Maybe it’s naivete from only following the team for eight years or so; who knows. I do know that going into the year I was very pessimistic for the first time out of those eight years. Even I couldn’t construct an argument for how this team could be a contender for a bowl game, let alone the Big Ten title.

But here we are. 5-0. 13 in the country. This is closed to uncharted territory for Northwestern. Fans are toeing the line right now between playing the “happy to be here” card and the “lose and the sky is falling” card. I’m somewhere in the middle. Yes, I’m giddy to be undefeated. But yes, I’ll also be very disappointed if they lose this weekend. I’m disappointed every time the ‘Cats lose.

There is a big difference this time. Never in my fandom have we had this much unexpected success in one year. In 2013 and 2014, for the first time I experienced what it was like to follow a losing team. And to put it in perspective, those two 5-7 seasons were exponentially better than the average for the majority of past Northwestern teams. That’s what’s fun about 2015 – this came out of nowhere. We can truly appreciate this success because of the context of two straight losing seasons. That’s why I may be disappointed if we lose Saturday, but will revert right back to giddy when I wake up on Sunday. Because it’s fun to be good again. It’s fun to see our name on ESPN.

For all those starting talk about playoffs, and Big Ten championships – I’d say slow down. Focus on the now. Take it one game at a time.

Chill out. Enjoy the ride. Stop and smell the roses.

Dear Fitz,

Congrats on a real nice season so far! Helluva win against Stanford. Nice guts last week to pull that one out in Durham. Way to go 1-0 each week, amirite?

Not to nit pick, but just thought I’d shoot you a note with a quick suggestion. Take it or leave it – up to you – but as a friend, wanted to give you some bud-to-bud advice.

First off – great job on recruiting this Justin Jackson fellow. Man, that kid can really run. Hard to believe that as a true freshman he put up a 1,000 yard season last year. Even harder to believe that you refused to start him until several games into the season, but whatevs, it’s cool. Not like he could have really helped us in those home losses against Cal and NIU.

But the good thing is, you adjusted. You made him the bellcow for the majority of the season, averaging 20 carries per game. This season, however, you’ve gone a bit overboard. Let’s check out his numbers so far:

I know you’re not a big fan of stats, so let me do that math for you. Justin’s had 85 carries so far, or an average of more than 28 per game. That’s insane, dude. Watching the Duke game (35 rushes for JJ), I could tell he was wearing down. You know you have other running backs on the team, right? And they’re not too shabby either – may I remind you that Solomon Vault and Warren Long scored our only two touchdowns against Duke. Outside of the Eastern Illinois game this year, those two only have 17 total carries.

Not telling you to how to do your job or anything, but maybe consider giving them the ball a bit more? It’s a deep position for the ‘Cats, so let’s spread the wealth. Just, ya know, a bit concerned that JJ is going to get hurt carrying the ball 28 times a game. And since running the ball seems to be our only way to move on offense, maybe we try and avoid an injury to our best player on that side of the ball. Again, just a suggestion – take it or leave it. And hey – if this is more of a McCall question, just let me know. Happy to reach out, as I’ve got a lot to talk to that guy about.

Yours truly,

A devoted ‘Cats fan

Northwestern has crept into both the AP and Coaches polls after a solid Week 2 performance against FCS foe Eastern Illinois. While most NU fans are excited by this news, yours truly couldn’t be more upset. NU has a huge challenge ahead of them next week on the road at Duke, and now that both the members of the media and head coaches have chosen us worthy of their top-25 lists, we’re almost assuredly going to lose.

Why, you ask? Well let’s take a look at all games during the Fitz era where NU first entered the polls.

Other than the season opener in 2013 where Collin Ellis put the team on his back, NU has lost every single game after debuting in the polls. You could even argue that they didn’t technically debut in the polls at Cal since they finished the 2012 season ranked in the final polls.

Let me just say – this trend is frightening. The only games NU has won as a ranked team during the Fitz era all came in 2013 (@Cal, Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine), arguably the most disappointing season in Northwestern football history. Is the coaching to blame? Was it just the luck of the schedule? It’s tough to say.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m as excited as you are that the ‘Cats are 2-0. I just wish we could have stayed out of the polls for at least another week.

It feels pretty darn good to be 1-0. The ‘Cats shocked the #21 Stanford Cardinal on Saturday 16-6 behind a dominant defensive performance. The youth on the team showed what it could do, and with a very manageable schedule for the rest of 2015, the future looks bright. After watching a replay of the game, here are five observations from the huge opening win.

Anthony Walker is a star. The redshirt sophomore was all over the field on Saturday. Dropping back in coverage, blitzing, playing spy on the QB, defending the run. No matter which, he pretty much always made the right play. He was constantly in the passing lane – if he can develop a pair of hands to pick off more throws, then watch out. Walker almost seemed like he knew what the offensive play was going to be before the ball is snapped. His anticipation and instincts are great, and he will be a joy to watch the next few years. I thought he was the best player on the field against Stanford.

 Our offensive and defensive lines outplayed the Cardinal. We won this game in the trenches, plain and simple. Since line play was supposed to be Stanford’s calling card, this was hugely encouraging. 225 yards rushing for the ‘Cats, and 85 for the Cardinal – enough said.

Clayton Thorson was clutch. Of his 12 completions in the game, seven went for third down conversions. His cross-the-field bomb to Shuler late in the fourth was a huge throw at a huge time, and helped us seal it. To be fair, he had some fluttering throws that almost looked Tebow-esque, and a few boneheaded decisions that looked Cutler-esque. Luckily the Stanford secondary had almost as bad a case of the dropsies as the Stanford wide receivers on Saturday. So yea, maybe he got a little bit lucky, but the point is he came through when it mattered…and we won. He played within himself, managed the game, and delivered in crunch time. Not bad for a 19 year old making his first career start.

The defense didn’t miss a tackle. OK they probably did at some point, but I didn’t notice any missed tackles when watching the replay. The entire defense swarms to the ball as the play develops, and once they get there they make sure it stops. There were several huge open field tackles by Walker, Henry and Lowry that stood out. This D has attitude, talent and speed – they will keep us in games this year.

We might be pretty good. The ‘Cats came into this game with low expectations for the year (at least from fans and media), but this win turns it all on its head. We just beat the best team on our schedule, and did so in decisive fashion. Yes, Stanford was sloppy and had some big drops that could have flipped the momentum, but all in all we looked the better team. What’s most encouraging is that we have an identity – we’ll run the ball down your throat, play suffocating defense and not make mistakes. Clayton Thorson and JJ together in the backfield is very tough to defend. While Thorson may not be as shifty or agile as former QBs like Kain Colter, he has more downhill speed. Once he gets going, he can hit another gear – I loved to see him actually pulling away from the Stanford secondary on his TD run. He may have made a few tough decisions on Saturday, but that part of his game will only improve with more experience under center. He’s going to keep getting better, and guess what – so are the rest of the ‘Cats.